Using the data in Table 1.4, calculate the four period centred moving average for Quarter 1 2025.

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (Oct/Nov 2025). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

1. [1] 4 period moving average = 8 period moving total / 8 (if no relevant calculation)
2. [1] Calculation of one or two relevant 4 period totals (e.g., 7 + 5.5 + 4.2 + 6.4 = 23.1)
3. [1] Calculation of one or two relevant 4 period totals (e.g., 5.5 + 4.2 + 6.4 + 7.6 = 23.7)
4. [2] Calculation of relevant 4 period totals AND relevant 8 period total OR calculation of relevant 8 period total (e.g., 8 period total = 23.1 + 23.7 = 46.8)
5. [3] Centred quarterly moving average = 46.8 / 8
6. [4] = 5.85 or $5.85m
7. [2] Other common answers: 23.1/4 = 5.775 OR 23.7 / 4 = 5.925 (Not using the correct sales volume figures.)
8. [1] 4 consecutive quarterly sales volumes added together and divided by 4 = 1 mark (e.g. (6 + 7 + 5.5 + 4.2) / 4 = 22.7 / 4 = 5.675)
9. [1] Limited knowledge of TSA: Sales forecasting involves making a prediction of future sales.
10. [1] Limited knowledge of TSA: Time series analysis is a method of forecasting based on extrapolation from past data.
11. [1] Benefits of TSA: Contribution to workforce planning.
12. [1] Benefits of TSA: Planning purchase of resources.
13. [1] Benefits of TSA: Greater accuracy in cash flow forecasting.
14. [1] Benefits of TSA: Aids operational decisions such as need to increase capacity.
15. [1] Benefits of TSA: Aids decisions about pricing.
16. [1] Benefits of TSA: Improves forecasting accuracy.
17. [1] Benefits of TSA: Identifies both trend and seasonal variation.
18. [1] Limitations of TSA: Based on historical data.
19. [1] Limitations of TSA: Does not account for external changes.
20. [1] Application: Q3 is peak month for sales.
21. [1] Application: Juice is not produced in the US but is imported.
22. [1] Application: Helps plan fruit imports.
23. [1] Application: The US market is very competitive.
24. [1] Application: Fluctuations in country B's exchange rate.
25. [1] Analysis: Helps ensure efficient use of labour and machinery helping to control costs of production.
26. [2] Analysis: Helps ensure efficient use of labour and machinery helping to control costs of production and therefore profit.
27. [1] Analysis: Contributes to creating cash flow forecast which will help ensure that KTJ has sufficient finance in place to deal with future needs.
28. [1] Analysis: Identifying the trend in sales growth will help set realistic marketing objectives in the marketing plan thus ensuring that resources are not wasted.
29. [1] Evaluation: Using 4 period moving average fits the data well as there are clear seasonal variations ensuring that the technique is more likely to give reliable results.
30. [1] Evaluation: Unexpected changes in the external environment such as entry of a new competitor will result in the predictions being incorrect and therefore less useful in making the best decisions.
31. [1] Evaluation: TSA relies on future events behaving as in the past so may not be reliable as markets are dynamic.
32. [1] Evaluation: Usefulness depends on stability of seasonal trends over time.
33. [1] Evaluation: May be advisable to introduce an element of probability to the forecasts – what if analysis.
34. [1] Evaluation: Forecasts may be less reliable if market conditions change unexpectedly.
35. [1] Evaluation: Most effective when combined with other forecasting methods.
36. [1] Evaluation: More suitable for short-term operational planning than for long-term strategic decisions.
37. [1] Evaluation: Practical value depends on KTJ's capacity to adjust production and procurement in response to forecasts.