Evaluate whether decision tree analysis or force field analysis will be more useful to AP's directors when making a strategic choice.

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (Oct/Nov 2022). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

1. [K] Understanding of Force Field Analysis – considers driving and restraining factors in a decision.
2. [K] Understanding of decision tree analysis: inclusion of probability to calculate the monetary outcomes from investments and make choice based on quantitative data.
3. [K] Understanding of other SC techniques such as Ansoff's matrix and investment appraisal techniques.
4. [K] Investment appraisal: payback and ARR. How quickly investment is recovered and the average profitability of the investment.
5. [K] Ansoff's matrix – considers risk of growth strategies with reference to product and market.
6. [K] Role of strategic choice in strategic management, including strategic analysis and implementation.
7. [App] Understanding of content of option 1 and option 2, for instance Option 1 is a change to B2C marketing and selling.
8. [App] Reference to decision tree analysis and force field analysis. (Table 3).
9. [App] Option 2 has higher EMV.
10. [App] Option 2 has higher profit of $5.4m if demand is high.
11. [App] Option 1 has higher profit of $2.2m if demand is low.
12. [App] Risk level low to medium for either option.
13. [App] Option 1 13:9 Option 2 11:10.
14. [App] AP's corporate objective is continued low risk controlled growth.
15. [An] Advantages of FFA: simple and easy to understand, inexpensive – forces acting on a change.
16. [An] Disadvantages: not all relevant forces may be identified, subjective scoring, only reliable as an indicator, few quantitative elements, simplistic scoring.
17. [An] Advantages of decision tree analysis: quantitative, takes market and risk into account, based on research, enables what-if analysis.
18. [An] Disadvantages of decision tree analysis: relies on accurate forecasting, may be relied on for accuracy, research methods may be flawed, data may be out of date, unforeseen changes can alter forecast.
19. [An] FFA favours option 1 and DTA favours Option 2.
20. [An] FFA enables focus on strengthening drivers for and minimising forces against.
21. [An] DT enables clear decision based on objective data.
22. [An] Comparison of decision tree analysis results with FFA. (Table 3).
23. [An] Use of other techniques e.g. Ansoff Matrix to cover different aspects and give further information to inform choice.
24. [An] Role of other elements of strategic management: initial analysis, implementation.
25. [An] Application of FFA and DT analysis to other strategic decisions (HR law response, international marketing, merger).
26. [Eval] Judgement on usefulness of FFA compared to decision trees for AP.
27. [Eval] Judgement on usefulness of FFA based on use of data from Tables 3 and 4.
28. [Eval] Subjective nature of FFA in determining values and choice of driving / restraining forces.
29. [Eval] Directors must understand the choice techniques to use them effectively.
30. [Eval] Decision making based on these techniques relies on accuracy of the information used.
31. [Eval] Importance of role of Ansoff Matrix and investment appraisal in supporting /not supporting judgement based on the FFA and decision tree analysis.