Refer to Appendix 1. Calculate:

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (Feb/Mar 2019). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

1. [1] (a)(i) -$1.56m Allow -1.56
2. [0] (a)(i) 21.5 - 23.06
3. [0] (a)(i) No marks for $1.56m
4. [1] (a)(ii) Sum of seasonal variations in Q2 / Number of seasonal variations
5. [1] (a)(ii) -0.56 + -1.41 + -1.35 + -1.75 = -5.07 / 4
6. [2] (a)(ii) -$1.27m Allow –1.27
7. [0] (a)(ii) Or -$1.2675m
8. [1] (b) Predicted trend from inspection of graph: $24.2m
9. [1] (b) Add average seasonal variation Q3 = $5.42m
10. [3] (b) Forecast = $29.62m
11. [2] (b) 29.62
12. [1] (b) Logical attempt to predict trend using the table (e.g. by considering the average of the Quarter 3s)
13. [1] (b) Correct use of seasonal variation
14. [0] (c) Definition: predicting future sales and sales trends
15. [0] (c) Although not in the syllabus candidates may refer to methods such as Delphi method; sales-force composite; jury of experts
16. [0] (c) Sales forecasting using Time Series Analysis takes account of seasonal variations and gives a realistic prediction.
17. [0] (c) Forecasting enables planning
18. [0] (c) How forecasts contribute to market planning
19. [0] (c) PY faces clear seasonal variation and consistent past trends so it is reasonable to assume that the future will be similar, making forecasting valuable for planning.
20. [0] (c) Case indicates possible changes to the market – market increasingly saturated; growth of competitor and the negative publicity
21. [0] (c) Identification of seasonal variation may inform PY decisions regarding marketing mix during different times of year. For example may encourage changes to pricing tactics in off season to boost sales.
22. [0] (c) Knowledge of forecast sales can be used to adjust marketing strategy in the future. Altering the level of promotional expenditure for example if there is a dip in sales projected.
23. [0] (c) Other factors will also be significant in determining the marketing mix. For example, decisions of competitors such as Blue Berry – if they increase promotional expenditure it may be necessary for PY to respond with their own campaigns to maintain sales.
24. [0] (c) Important to also analyse why trends may be changing as part of the process of making marketing decisions
25. [0] (c) More reliable than simple forecasting or just projecting a trend
26. [0] (c) Relies on future events behaving as in past patterns so may not be reliable e.g. negative publicity
27. [0] (c) Other evidence needs to be taken into account e.g. prediction of competitors' behaviour, likely future government actions, and/or economic changes
28. [0] (c) May be advisable to introduce an element of probability to the forecasts - what if analysis.