Over time the determinants of population size, including the birth rate and the fertility rate, change. It is predicted that the world population will rise to 9 billion by 2050. Some countries, including Italy and Japan, however, are expected to experience a fall in population size. It is also predicted that average incomes will rise in most countries.

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (May/June 2014). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

1. [4] Birth rate is the number of births per thousand of the population (1) in a year (1) whilst the fertility rate is the number of children a woman has (1) on average/over her life time (1).
2. [6] Up to 2 marks: there will be more income/resources to support people in old age (1) so there may be less need to have a high number of children (1).
3. Up to 2 marks: there may be greater availability of contraception (1) and greater spending power to buy contraception.
4. Up to 2 marks: people may stay in education longer which may increase the cost of having children (1) and may delay the age at which people have children (1).
5. Up to 2 marks: higher income is linked to better health care/nutrition (1) so there may be a fall in infant mortality (1).
6. Up to 2 marks: due to better health care and nutrition (1), the death rate may fall (1).
7. Up to 2 marks: may encourage immigration (1), due to expectation of higher pay/greater job opportunities/higher living standards (1).
8. Up to 2 marks: higher incomes may encourage some families to have more children (1) as now they can afford it (1).
9. Note: a maximum of 6 marks overall.
10. [10] Up to 7 marks for why it should:
11. Up to 3 marks: may result in a less efficient use of resources (below the optimum population) (1), as there may not be enough workers to make full use of the other factors of production (1), and so output per head will fall (1).
12. Up to 3 marks: will experience a fall in total (aggregate) demand (1), as there will be fewer consumers (1) and lower demand may reduce employment (1).
13. Up to 3 marks: labour force may be reduced (1). If the fall in population size is due to emigration, there may be fewer workers to dependents (1) and this will increase the dependency ratio (1).
14. Up to 3 marks: may reduce factor mobility (1), if there are fewer young workers, there may be less occupational mobility (1) and geographical mobility (1).
15. Up to 2 marks: a rise in the death rate may indicate serious health problems/a natural disaster (1). This would indicate a need for greater government spending on health care/better disaster response (1).
16. Up to 7 marks for why it should not:
17. Up to 3 marks: may result in a more efficient use of resources (towards the optimum population) (1), as there will now be more workers to make full use of the other factors of production (1), and so output per head will rise (1).
18. Up to 3 marks: may reduce overcrowding (1), giving people more living space (1) and reducing stress/ill health (1).
19. Up to 3 marks: labour force may still be increasing (1). If the fall in population size is due to a fall in the birth rate (1) this will mean a reduction in the dependency ratio (1).
20. Up to 2 marks: may reduce environmental problems (1), e.g. traffic congestion/pollution (1).
21. Up to 2 marks: may reduce the need for social capital (1), e.g. hospitals/schools (1).
22. Maximum of 5 marks for a list or list-like response.
23. Note: a maximum of 10 marks overall.