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A-LevelMathematicsProbability and statistics9709/53 · Oct/Nov 2023 · Q511 Marks

The probability that a driver passes an advanced driving test is 0.3 on any given attempt. Dipak keeps taking the test until he passes. The random variable X denotes the number of attempts required for Dipak to pass the test.

  1. (a)(i)Find P(2 ≤ X ≤ 6).[2]
  2. (a)(ii)Find E(X).[1]
  3. (b)Five friends will each take their advanced driving test tomorrow. Find the probability that at least three of them will pass tomorrow.[3]
  4. (c)75 people will take their advanced driving test next week. Use an approximation to find the probability that more than 20 of them will pass next week.[5]

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (Oct/Nov 2023). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

  1. [M1] 1 - 0.7ⁿ seen, n = 5, 6.
  2. [A1] www 0.582351 to at least 3SF.
  3. [M1] Sum of first 4 or 5 correct terms no incorrect terms.
  4. [A1] www 0.582351 to at least 3SF.
  5. [B1] Condone 3.33, 3.3 or 10/3 – NOT 1/0.3.
  6. [M1] One term seen ⁵Cₓ (p)ˣ (1-p)⁵⁻ˣ, 0 < p < 1, x ≠ 0, 5.
  7. [A1] Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no terms omitted leading to final answer.
  8. [B1] 0.16308 to at least 3SF.
  9. [M1] One term seen ⁵Cₓ (p)ˣ (1-p)⁵⁻ˣ, 0 < p < 1, x ≠ 0, 5.
  10. [A1] Correct expression, accept unsimplified, no terms omitted leading to final answer.
  11. [B1] 0.16308 to at least 3SF.
  12. [B1] 22.5, 22 1/2 and 15.75, 15 3/4 seen, allow unsimplified. (σ = 3√7/2 or 3.9686269... to at least 3SF implies correct variance)
  13. [M1] Substituting their μ and σ into ±standardisation formula (any number for 20.5), not σ² not √o.
  14. [M1] Using continuity correction 19.5 or 20.5 in their standardisation formula.
  15. [M1] Appropriate area Φ, from final process, must be a probability. Expect final answer > 0.5. Note: correct final answer implies this M1.
  16. [A1] 0.6925 < p ≤ 0.693

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About this question

Topic
Probability and statistics, A-Level Mathematics (syllabus 9709). Structured question, 11 marks.
Source
A-Level Mathematics, Oct/Nov 2023 Paper 5 Variant 3, question 5.

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