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A-LevelMathematicsProbability and statistics9709/53 · Oct/Nov 2021 · Q610 Marks

In a game, Jim throws three darts at a board. This is called a 'turn'. The centre of the board is called the bull's-eye. The random variable X is the number of darts in a turn that hit the bull's-eye. The probability distribution of X is given in the following table. X | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 P(X = x) | 0.6 | p | q | 0.05 It is given that E(X) = 0.55.

  1. (a)Find the values of p and q.[4]
  2. (b)Find Var(X).[2]
  3. (c)Find the probability that X = 1 in at least 3 of 12 randomly chosen turns.[3]
  4. (d)Find the probability that Jim first succeeds in hitting the bull's-eye with all three darts on his 9th turn.[1]

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (Oct/Nov 2021). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

  1. [B1] Sum of probabilities = 1.
  2. [B1] Use given information.
  3. [M1] Either a single expression with one variable eliminated formed or two expressions with both variables on the same side seen with at least one variable value stated.
  4. [A1] CAO, both WWW
  5. [SC] If M0 with correct answers SC B1.
  6. [M1] Appropriate variance formula including (E(X))², accept unsimplified.
  7. [A1] CAO (must be exact).
  8. [M1] One correct term: ¹²Cx pˣ (1 – p)¹²⁻ˣ for 0 < x < 12, 0 < p < 1.
  9. [A1FT] Correct unsimplified expression, or better in final answer. Unsimplified expression must be seen to FT their p from 6(a) or correct.
  10. [A1]
  11. [B1] Evaluated.

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About this question

Topic
Probability and statistics, A-Level Mathematics (syllabus 9709). Structured question, 10 marks.
Source
A-Level Mathematics, Oct/Nov 2021 Paper 5 Variant 3, question 6.

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