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A-LevelMathematicsProbability and statistics9709/61 · May/June 2021 · Q710 Marks

The masses, in kilograms, of large and small sacks of flour have the distributions N(55, 3²) and N(27, 2.5²) respectively.

  1. (a)Some sacks are loaded onto a boat. The maximum load of flour that the boat can carry safely is 340 kg. Find the probability that the boat can carry safely 3 randomly chosen large sacks of flour and 6 randomly chosen small sacks of flour.[5]
  2. (b)Find the probability that the mass of a randomly chosen large sack of flour is greater than the total mass of two randomly chosen small sacks of flour.[5]

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (May/June 2021). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

  1. [B1] For expected total mass `E(T) = 3×55 + 6×27 = 327` (OE, accept unsimplified).
  2. [B1] For variance of total mass `Var(T) = 3×3² + 6×2.5² = 64.5` (accept unsimplified).
  3. [M1] For standardizing the value: `(340 - 327) / √64.5`. Must have √.
  4. [M1] For finding the correct probability area: `P(Z < 1.619) = Φ(1.619)`. Correct probability area consistent with their working.
  5. [A1] Final probability `0.947 (3 sf)`.
  6. [B1] For expected difference `E(L - S1 - S2) = 55 – 2 × 27 = 1` (OE e.g. `E(S1+S2 – L) = −1`. Accept unsimplified).
  7. [B1] For variance of difference `Var(L - S1 - S2) = 3² + 2 × 2.5² = 21.5` (accept unsimplified).
  8. [M1] For standardizing: `(0 - 1) / √21.5`. Standardising with their values. Must come from a combination attempt.
  9. [M1] For finding correct probability area: `P(L - S1 - S2 > 0) = Φ('0.216')`. Correct probability area consistent with their working.
  10. [A1] Final probability `0.586` or `0.585 (3 sf)`.

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About this question

Topic
Probability and statistics, A-Level Mathematics (syllabus 9709). Structured question, 10 marks.
Source
A-Level Mathematics, May/June 2021 Paper 6 Variant 1, question 7.

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