Evaluate whether the decision tree calculation in Table 3 is sufficient for JGS to make a strategic choice between Option 1 and Option 2.

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (May/June 2020). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

1. [3] Good understanding shown (Knowledge)
2. [3] Good application to JGS (Application)
3. [4] Good use of theory to explain points made (Analysis)
4. [10] Good judgment shown throughout with well supported conclusion/recommendation, focused on JGS (Evaluation)
5. Knowledge:
6. Explanation of decision tree method and use
7. Place of strategic choice in overall strategic planning
8. Role of strategic choice in management
9. Decision trees as one of three strategic choice techniques
10. Explanation and/or drawing up of Ansoff Matrix, Force Field Analysis
11. Application:
12. JGS opportunities – expanding business, multinational offer, extension to tourist sites
13. JGS threats – environmental and cultural degradation, competition
14. Owner objective of expansion
15. JGS objective of expansion
16. Use of data in Table 3
17. Analysis:
18. EMVs from Table 2 indicate preferred option is 2
19. Ansoff's indicates Option 1 is effectively Market development (medium risk), Option 2 is effectively diversification (high risk)
20. This analysis is reflected in decision tree figures
21. Not much information to draw up a force field analysis
22. Strategic choice is a stage in strategic management and is based on setting objectives and analysis
23. Evaluation:
24. Decision trees show clear understandable information
25. Takes account of risk and probability of outcomes and is objective
26. Allows for "what if" analysis
27. Accuracy and reliability of decision trees rely on accurate data. No indication of how this was obtained. Does Jan have the competency to prepare this reliably?
28. Decision trees only provide quantitative information and may be based on poor research
29. Decision trees cannot take account of future unseen factors and only provide averages
30. Choice is only a part of strategic management and success depends on effective implementation
31. Summary/conclusion - likely to be that decision trees provide vital information for JGS but that other techniques are necessary for a fully informed decision