Refer to Table 1 and lines 24-26. Calculate the: average seasonal variation for quarter 3

Mark scheme

Marking points from the official mark scheme (May/June 2020). The mark or mark type is shown in brackets.

1. [1] (a)(i) Identification of values for quarter 3
2. [2] (a)(i) (-6000 + -14000)/2 = –$10000
3. [1] (a)(ii) Forecast sales = trend plus average seasonal variation
4. [2] (a)(ii) 86 560 + (-10000) = $76560
5. [1] (b) YED = % change in demand / % change in income
6. [2] (b) 20 / 5 = 4
7. [2] (c) Two or more relevant points (Knowledge)
8. [2] (c) Application of two or more points to JGS (Application)
9. [3-4] (c) Good use of theory to answer question (Analysis)
10. [3-4] (c) Good judgment shown (Evaluation)
11. Knowledge (c):
12. Time series analysis takes into account seasonal changes and trends
13. Forecast is based on past behaviour projected into the future
14. The future may not behave as the past
15. Market / economic environment changes may or may not be as forecasted
16. Other factors may influence the forecast
17. Application (c):
18. Reference to mountain walks, possible price increase, government policy on small businesses, possible changes to outsourcing conditions, market conditions in client countries, country K, possible implementation of Options
19. Analysis (c):
20. Accurately takes into account seasonal changes and trends to give reliable forecast
21. Future may not reflect past behaviour exactly
22. Changes to external environment may influence forecast
23. Internal changes may affect take-up of holidays
24. There may be reasons why less customers come from country K making forecast less accurate
25. Evaluation (c):
26. Justified conclusion as correctness of forecasts
27. Technique only as good as data
28. Rapidly changing market environment means forecast less accurate
29. Many uncertainties reduce reliability of the forecast
30. Can rapid growth of customers continue in same way?